Tesla, software and disruption

When Nokia people looked at the first iPhone, they saw a not-great phone with some cool features that they were going to build too, being produced at a small fraction of the volumes they were selling. They shrugged. “No 3G, and just look at the camera!”

When car company people look at a Tesla, they have the same reaction. The Nokia people were terribly, terribly wrong. Are the car people wrong?

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Ways to think about market size.

When you try to work out the market potential for something fundamentally new, you’re actually trying to resolve two, linked problems.

First, you have to look past what it is now, and see how much better and cheaper it might become
Second, you need to think about who would buy it now, and who else would buy it once it is better and cheaper, and how it might be used. 

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